Putin Is Not Hitler. Putin = Nicholas I

When it comes to historical parallels to Putin’s adventure in Ukraine, Hitler and World War II are most frequently mentioned. But this is a superficial analogy that obscures understanding rather than clarifying it. A far more accurate parallel is Nicholas I and the Crimean War of 1853–1856. And not just because of the conflict’s name.

Five Fatal Parallels

1. Imperial revanchism against Turkey vs revanchism against Ukraine (“the collective West”)

Nicholas I went to war with the Ottoman Empire, considering it the “sick man of Europe” that could be easily dismembered. Putin started a war against Ukraine, considering it an “artificial state” that he had already begun tearing to pieces. In both cases — a fundamental error in assessing the situation.

Russia of the 1850s considered itself the gendarme of Europe after suppressing the revolutions of 1848. Russia of the 2020s considered itself a reborn superpower after Syria and Crimea. Both regimes confused the West’s temporary tolerance with its weakness.

2. Logistics and resources as a verdict

The Crimean War revealed the complete failure of Russian logistics. The army could not supply even its own territory — Crimea — with ammunition and provisions. Meanwhile, the allies transported everything necessary by sea across thousands of kilometers.

Ukraine-2022 repeated this lesson. The “second army in the world” could not maintain 200-kilometer logistics to Kyiv. Ammunition depots burn from strikes at distances of 500+ km from the front. Russia has turned into a washing machine laundromat for the sake of microchips.

The technological lag of the 1850s (smoothbore weapons against rifled) = the technological lag of the 2020s (Soviet chips against Chinese electronics).

3. International isolation

After the Crimean War, Russia found itself in complete isolation. The Congress of Paris in 1856 was a humiliation that Russia could not overcome until 1871. The Black Sea Fleet — limited, the Danubian Principalities — lost, the status of Europe’s hegemon — destroyed.

After February 24, 2022, Russia received the harshest sanctions in history. Exit from most international organizations, frozen assets, technological embargo. Putin, like Nicholas, did not calculate that Europe would unite against the aggressor.

4. Ideology as a weapon of mass deception

Nicholas I: Uvarov’s triad “Orthodoxy, Autocracy, Nationality.” New imperial flag. The cult of “Russian spirituality” and Russia’s messianic role.

Putin: “Russkiy mir,” “spiritual bonds,” Z/V/O symbolism, the cult of Pobedobesie. Messianic role as “savior of the world from the decaying West.”

Both ideologies are surrogates to cover up economic backwardness and political despotism. Both collapsed when confronted with reality.

5. Britain then, NATO now

Nicholas believed that Britain would not interfere. He was wrong. The coalition of Britain, France, the Ottoman Empire, and Sardinia shattered the myth of the invincibility of the Russian army.

Putin believed that NATO was divided and would not respond. He was wrong. The coalition led by the USA and Britain provides Ukraine with weapons that methodically destroy the Russian army and economy.

The difference is nuclear weapons, which make direct intervention impossible. But this only delays, not cancels, the result.

USA: Then and Now

1853–1856: USA — Observer

Mid-19th century America was not yet a global player. The country was occupied with its own westward expansion and the growing North-South conflict that would lead to the Civil War of 1861–1865. The Crimean War was a “European affair” in which Americans did not interfere.

The USA then viewed Europe as a source of immigrants and capital, but not as an arena for its own geopolitics. The Monroe Doctrine worked in the opposite direction — keep Europe away from America.

2022–2025: USA — Architect of Resistance

Now the USA is the backbone of the entire coalition supporting Ukraine. Without American intelligence, American HIMARS, American Patriots, American pressure on allies, the war would look completely different.

But there’s a nuance. The Biden administration provided aid on the principle of “enough so Ukraine doesn’t lose, but not enough to win quickly.” Escalation dominance — the fear that Putin would use nuclear weapons — paralyzed decisiveness.

The Trump administration brought other risks. “Deal-making” instead of principled support. Attempts to “freeze” the conflict instead of ensuring Ukraine’s victory. Return to isolationism under the slogans of “America First.”

The irony of history: in the 1850s, America could afford not to interfere. Now it cannot. If Russia wins in Ukraine, next will be Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Moldova. And then — direct NATO conflict, in which the USA will have to participate at a much higher price.

How Will This End?

The Crimean War ended in Russia’s complete defeat. Nicholas I died in 1855 without living to see peace. His son Alexander II was forced to sign the shameful Treaty of Paris in 1856.

Results:

• Loss of superpower status
• 15 years of economic stagnation
• Forced implementation of reforms (abolition of serfdom in 1861)
• Recognition of technological backwardness
• A generation of lag behind Europe

Putin’s war follows the same path:

• Loss of remaining influence in the post-Soviet space
• Economic degradation under sanctions (GDP at 2010s levels)
• Technological catastrophe (dependence on China and India)
• Demographic crisis (casualties, emigration, birth rate)
• Collapse of “russkiy mir” as an idea

The difference is that in 1856 Russia was an agrarian country with development potential. Now it’s a gas station with nuclear weapons that has exhausted its modernization potential. After defeat in Ukraine, Russia faces not reformation, but disintegration.

The question is not whether Putin will lose. The question is how many lives will be lost before that moment, and whether he will manage to die, like Nicholas I, without living to see capitulation.

Conclusion

Putin is not Hitler with blitzkrieg and total economic mobilization. Putin is Nicholas I with imperial ambitions, technological backwardness, and a fatal misunderstanding of the international situation.

History does not repeat itself — it rhymes. And the rhymes of the Crimean War of 1853–1856 are the Ukrainian war of 2022–2025. With the same finale — the collapse of an empire that considered itself invincible.

Oleh Cheslavskyi — independent historian and analyst specializing in deconstructing imperial narratives.

Originally published at spilno.org