Power Groups and Backroom Negotiations in Ukraine: How the Opposition Prepares to Oust Volodymyr Zelensky

Amid escalating international tensions and increased pressure from Washington, behind-the-scenes agreements between Ukrainian political elites and representatives of Donald Trump's administration are gaining significance. In particular, secret negotiations involve both former and current high-ranking officials: Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, Davyd Arakhamia, and Dmytro Razumkov. They seek U.S. support to strengthen their political influence and possibly remove the current president, Volodymyr Zelensky, from power.

Origins of the Situation and International Context

Recently, the United States, in the context of Donald Trump's relations with Ukraine's leadership, has openly expressed dissatisfaction with Volodymyr Zelensky's actions. Senior Trump administration officials have repeatedly accused the Ukrainian president of being unwilling or unable to engage in negotiations that would satisfy U.S. security interests. Under these conditions, the American administration is looking for alternative leaders who might be more willing to make concessions on issues where Zelensky refuses to compromise with either the Kremlin or the United States.

Certain hopes are placed on Zelensky's political opponents—representatives of opposition forces who have repeatedly articulated their readiness for negotiations with the U.S.

Key Players: Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Arakhamia, Razumkov

Petro Poroshenko

Former president of Ukraine, known as the "chocolate king" due to his confectionery empire. He leads the "European Solidarity" party and seeks to regain the influence he lost after his presidency. According to recent polls, while his support level does not yet match Zelensky's, he remains one of the most prominent opponents of the current government.

Yulia Tymoshenko

Former prime minister, known for her "relentless ambition" and political experience spanning over two decades. According to several Ukrainian parliamentarians, she has held talks with individuals close to Donald Trump, attempting to demonstrate her willingness to compromise and her potential as a possible head of state in the event of early elections.

David Arakhamia

A deputy from the formerly ruling "Servant of the People" party. According to various sources, he initiated a public appeal from the Verkhovna Rada to Donald Trump, welcoming his peace initiatives. This appeal is considered one of the first steps in a broader operation aimed at removing Zelensky from power and forming a pro-American parliamentary majority that could support a course change.

Dmytro Razumkov

Former speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, who initially led the electoral list of "Servant of the People" but later became an independent deputy. Razumkov registered a resolution to create a negotiating group with the White House without Zelensky's involvement, thus publicly challenging the current president.

Possible Scenarios

1. Zelensky’s Forceful Response. The president may take drastic measures: declare a state of emergency or martial law, dissolve the Verkhovna Rada, and implement repressive actions against opponents. This would allow him to temporarily strengthen his grip on power but could provoke a harsh reaction from the West.
2. Compromise with Parliamentary Factions. Zelensky attempts to find common ground with key forces in parliament, delegating some powers to them, thereby reducing internal tensions. Under this scenario, strict adherence to the Constitution and a parliamentary-presidential model would be restored.
3. Successful Removal of Zelensky. The initiators of backroom agreements (Arakhamia, Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, Razumkov) achieve their goal, persuade a portion of deputies and security forces to side with them, and gain support from the Trump administration. As a result, early elections are held, or a transitional government loyal to the United States is formed.

External Pressure and the U.S. Position

Washington plays a key role in the ongoing game. Donald Trump and his entourage openly state their desire for a quick end to the war, even at the cost of significant territorial concessions by Ukraine. Politicians who can guarantee such an approach have a chance to become the "new faces" leading the country.

Trump continues to accuse Zelensky of refusing to hold elections during martial law, calling him a "dictator without elections." At the same time, evidence is emerging of secret negotiations between Trump's inner circle and Ukrainian opposition leaders, discussing the conditions for potential U.S. support.

Possible Consequences for Ukraine

1. Increased Internal Instability. Any attempt to change power forcibly or through early elections during wartime could lead to internal division, weakened defense capabilities, and the risk of concessions in negotiations with Russia.
2. International Reaction. A sharp turn by Kyiv towards Trump’s policies could negatively impact Ukraine’s relations with other allies, primarily EU countries.
3. Changes in Government Structures. If Zelensky is removed, a rapid formation of a U.S.-backed parliamentary majority may occur, along with the possible reduction of presidential powers.

Conclusions

Ukraine is at a complex and dangerous crossroads. The coming months will be decisive for the country’s political trajectory and Volodymyr Zelensky’s future, as he risks facing a dilemma: to uphold his principles and risk a complete break with Washington, to align with the American administration’s terms, or ultimately step down under the pressure of external and internal factors.