The Potash War: How Mazepin Tried to Buy Belarus and Wagner Mercenaries Ended Up in Lukashenko's Residence

Lukashenko screamed about a coup attempt, the Kremlin raged about slander, and Kyiv remained silent. But nobody asked the main question: what the hell were Russian mercenaries doing at a sanatorium controlled by the Presidential Administration of Belarus? At a residence controlled by Viktor Sheiman—the man who holds the financial flows of Belaruskali in his hands.

And Belaruskali is the real target of this multi-move operation. Not the freedom of Belarusians, not democracy, not even geopolitics. Billions of dollars in potash monopoly—that's what lies behind the 2020 protests, Wagnergate, and the suspiciously rosy-cheeked Maria Kolesnikova after five years in prison.

Ten Billion Reasons for Friendship

Twenty years ago, Suleiman Kerimov, Lukashenko, and his right hand Viktor Sheiman created what every businessman dreams of—a cartel controlling 42% of the global market. Uralkali plus Belaruskali isn't just two factories, it's almost half of the planet's potash fertilizer production. Prices soared tenfold. Revenue—$10-15 billion annually. A beautiful scheme, until someone started playing games.

Kerimov decided he could make a little extra on the side—started dumping secretly, undermining the agreements. Batka got seriously pissed. Kerimov was put on the wanted list, his CEO was imprisoned, and Putin had to urgently transfer the asset from Kerimov to another "godfather"—Dmitry Mazepin.

Mazepin isn't just another oligarch from Putin's circle. He's the man who controls Uralkali, Uralchem, and Togliattiazot. He's the man who wants our ammonia pipeline and Odessa Port Plant. But most of all, Mazepin wants Belaruskali. Because whoever controls Belaruskali plus Uralkali dictates prices to half the world.

And Lukashenko understands this perfectly. That's why he won't surrender.

The Banker, the Beauty, and the Telegram Channel

In May 2020, Lukashenko imprisons Viktor Babariko—a presidential candidate who had previously headed the Belarusian subsidiary of Gazprombank. Why Babariko? Because Mazepin was behind him. The same Mazepin who financed NEXTA—the main information mouthpiece of the Belarusian protests. Roman Protasevich confirmed this himself.

When Babariko was taken, Maria Kolesnikova picked up the banner—the head of his campaign, a girl with big eyes and an unbreakable spirit. The Russians simply copied the European scheme with Tikhanovskiy: imprisoned the male candidate, let the woman become the symbol. Elegant. Cynical. Effective.

And then there was Vladimir Makei—the Minister of Foreign Affairs, whom Mazepin was "pushing." Makei suddenly died in 2022 after negotiations with Moscow. Coincidence? Maybe. But when billions are at stake, there are no coincidences.

Wagner Mercenaries at the Residence: Questions Without Answers

Now for the most interesting part. On July 29, 2020, when the streets of Belarusian cities were already boiling, when the protests sponsored by Mazepin were gaining momentum, 33 Wagner mercenaries were detained at the Belorusochka sanatorium.

Belorusochka isn't some random hotel. It's a sanatorium of the Presidential Administration. It's a residence controlled by Viktor Sheiman—Lukashenko's closest associate, the man who oversees Belaruskali's financial flows and owns his own PMC operating in Africa.

The question is simple to the point of impossibility: did Lukashenko know that Russian thugs had settled in what is essentially his residence? Of course he knew. Sheiman wouldn't have a cup of coffee without Batka's permission, let alone house 33 Wagner mercenaries.

Then the next question: why? Why did Lukashenko get involved in this story?

And the strangest part—the Ukrainian trace. The operation was carried out "on the initiative of" Kyrylo Budanov and his colleague from SBU days, Ruslan Chervinsky. GUR and SBU were somehow involved in setting up the Wagner mercenaries for arrest in Belarus. Why? To disrupt their transfer somewhere? To help Lukashenko in negotiations with the Kremlin? To set up Mazepin? Or all of the above?

The only thing that's absolutely clear: Wagnergate ten days before the elections, against the backdrop of protests sponsored by Mazepin, at the residence of the man who holds Belaruskali—this is no coincidence. It's a detonator of some complex multi-move operation where each side was playing its own game.

Masha with the Big Eyes: Too Rosy for Five Years in Prison

Now about Maria Kolesnikova. In September 2020, she was detained while trying to leave—according to the official version, she tore up her passport at the border. Five years in Belarusian prisons. A symbol of resistance. Unbreakable.

And now it's 2025. She's released. And here an uncomfortable question arises: why does she look "too rosy after five years in prison"? This observation isn't trivial. It's a marker.

Remember Nadiya Savchenko? She returned from Russian captivity—and started working out scenarios beneficial to the Kremlin. Is the scheme repeating?

There's a version that the Russians, through the Americans, negotiated Kolesnikova's release with Lukashenko. If so—why is she needed free right now? What new agreements have emerged between Minsk and Moscow after 2022? And is Kolesnikova really a victim, or an element of a new combination?

The Unfinished Game

Belaruskali is still under Lukashenko's control. Sheiman oversees the financial flows as he did before. Mazepin didn't get his monopoly. The 2020 coup didn't happen. But does this mean the war is over?

Rather—that it's only paused. The potash market hasn't gone anywhere. The billions are still there. Mazepin wanted Belaruskali then, he wants it now. And Kolesnikova's release may not be the end of the story, but the beginning of a new phase.

The events of 2020 in Belarus aren't just protests for democracy. It's a collision of several scenarios simultaneously. Mazepin's scenario: a coup through protests, controlled candidates, and NEXTA to seize Belaruskali. Lukashenko's scenario: using the threat of a coup to bargain with the Kremlin and retain assets. The Ukrainian scenario: an unclear multi-move by GUR/SBU, possibly aimed at destabilizing Minsk-Moscow relations.

And Wagnergate in this context isn't an accidental provocation. It's an element of a complex game where the target was Belaruskali, and the stakes were a monopoly on the global fertilizer market.

Now all that remains is to wait and see what happens next. Because in a game for billions, the finale is never obvious.