11 March, 08:13
The statement by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that "Ukraine must cede territory in any peace agreement" has delivered yet another blow to the foundations of international law.
If the global community acknowledges that aggression backed by a nuclear arsenal is an effective tool for achieving political goals, then all principles of international agreements are effectively nullified.
The Collapse of Security Guarantees
The Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994, was a kind of Rubicon for global politics. Ukraine gave up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for guarantees of territorial integrity and sovereignty from the U.S., the U.K., and Russia. Today, we see that these guarantees are not worth the paper they were written on.
In fact, this moment became the turning point when the "club of those who rule the world" closed its doors to new members. Those who did not manage to acquire nuclear weapons by that time found themselves in a vulnerable position. Israel, North Korea, India, and Pakistan drew their conclusions and preserved or developed their nuclear programs, while Ukraine received war and the threat of dismemberment.
The Nuclear Argument – The Key Factor in Modern Geopolitics
The reality in which only nuclear weapons guarantee a country's security means that the world is reverting to the logic of "might makes right." This is particularly dangerous for countries that do not have their own nuclear potential, as they can become victims of aggression, with international agreements unable to protect them.
Such a situation creates a new precedent: countries that previously considered nuclear disarmament are receiving a clear signal – giving up nuclear weapons leads to the loss of sovereignty. This will inevitably trigger a new wave of nuclear arms races.
Consequences for the Global Order
If an aggressor possessing nuclear weapons can dictate terms while the victim is forced to make concessions, the global security system ceases to function. The UN, international treaties, and diplomacy lose their meaning because the main argument is no longer law but force.
Ukraine has become an example of how a civilized choice in favor of peace turns into a tragedy. Today, the world faces a crucial question: will it allow nuclear blackmail to become the new norm? If so, international law will ultimately turn into a fiction, and each country will have to rely solely on its own strength.
The choice that humanity makes now will determine the future of global security for decades to come.