25 March, 11:48
Karl Marx once made a very accurate diagnosis of Russia: “Without Petersburg and Odessa, Russia turns into a giant with severed legs.”
Russia is a resource empire. An empire that builds its economy on the sale of what it has stolen from the peoples of its vast colonies: oil, gas, metals, grain. Many mistakenly call this process self-colonization or self-cannibalization, but that is completely incorrect. “Russia” is a collective name for the colonies of Moscow, which itself — surprisingly — is not truly a metropolis. It is indeed a large administrative center, but money flows don’t stay there — they flow westward.
But that’s not the point. The most important thing to understand is this: in order for Moscow to consistently sell resources, it vitally needs non-freezing ports. And here is where Ukraine and the Baltic states become a key obstacle to the expansion of Russian colonialism.
Ukraine: a transport artery that makes Russia a maritime power
Ukraine is not just a neighbor to Russia. It is control over access to the Black Sea and, therefore, to global trade routes.
▪️ Odessa is the main and most coveted trophy: Without it, Russia is left only with Novorossiysk, which freezes over in winter and lacks the capacity for global trade flows. If the Kremlin took Odessa, it could fully control exports via the Black Sea.
▪️ Ukraine has closed the transit noose: Raw materials and grain stolen in the colonies used to go through Ukrainian railways and ports. Now that route is blocked, and Russia is forced to look for detours, losing time and money.
▪️ Ukraine as a barrier to Europe: With the annexation of Crimea, Moscow hoped to strengthen its position in the region, but without control over all of Ukraine, that plan proved meaningless.
The Baltics: control over the Baltic Sea and the loss of “maritime gateways”
Russia has historically depended on Baltic ports. All imperial trade logistics with the West passed through Riga, Tallinn, and Klaipeda.
▪️ Riga and Tallinn are not just ports: They were the main hubs for exporting Russian goods to Europe. Now they are closed, and Russia is forced to overload its already weak infrastructure.
▪️ Kaliningrad is trapped: After losing the Baltics, the only non-freezing ports in the Baltic Sea are Ust-Luga and Kaliningrad. But the latter is cut off from Russia and relies on Western supplies, while Ust-Luga is a poor substitute for Riga.
▪️ The Baltic Sea has become a NATO lake: Russia has lost strategic presence in the region. Its fleet once freely moved between Petersburg, Kaliningrad, and the Baltic states. Now at every turn — NATO bases and Alliance military exercises.
Russia without Ukraine and the Baltic states is a crippled colossus
Without Odessa, Russia has no convenient access to the Black Sea — and therefore to the Mediterranean and the world’s oceans.
Without Riga and Tallinn, it has lost logistical centers for trade with Europe.
Without control over these regions, Russia remains locked within itself, economically dependent on China, and increasingly turns into its raw-material appendage.
In the logic of any other country, Russia would have contributed to making Ukraine and Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia its partners, helping them develop their transport infrastructure and capacities. But not in the logic of the Kremlin, which believes Ukraine and the Baltic states deliberately stand in Russia’s way and hinder its development — harming it by their very existence and geographic location, purposely blocking the path of its caravans with raw materials looted in the colonies.