24 December 2024, 17:17
Post-war Ukraine will face a new reality that will transform not only its social and economic structure but also its political landscape. When analyzing possible scenarios, it is important to consider the key factors that will determine the election outcome: a lack of trust in existing politicians, the tendency to vote "against," the influence of veteran-based projects, and the role of the diaspora voters.
Post-war Ukraine will face a new reality that will transform not only its social and economic structure but also its political landscape. When analyzing possible scenarios, it is important to consider the key factors that will determine the election outcome: a lack of trust in existing politicians, the tendency to vote "against," the influence of veteran-based projects, and the role of the diaspora voters.
1. The Politics of Denial: Who Will Be the Lesser Evil?
Ukraine's current political landscape is characterized by a total crisis of trust. All major players are long associated with oligarchic clans and corruption schemes. This factor determines the voting model, where the voter is guided not by sympathy but by the desire to punish the previous leader. The 2019 election is a clear example of this: 75% of votes for Volodymyr Zelensky were more of a protest against Petro Poroshenko than genuine support for a new face.
However, such a voting model carries the risk of repeating mistakes. Corruption schemes, simply passing from one set of actors to another, only deepen society's cynicism. After the war, this trend is likely to persist: the winner will be the candidate who successfully portrays themselves as the "lesser evil" or the "new evil," untainted by dirty political games.
Victory, at least in the presidential elections, will go not to the one who convinces voters to vote for them but to the one who convinces them to vote against their opponent. As described earlier, this happened with Zelensky. Despite Poroshenko supporters claiming that 75% voted for Zelensky because they were naive, and Zelensky himself believing it was because he represented a fresh face, the reality is different. The 75% were primarily a protest against corruption schemes directly or indirectly associated with Poroshenko. Another issue is that the outcome of such a choice turned out to be far worse than expected, as corruption schemes that existed long before Poroshenko not only persisted under Zelensky but, due to the political inexperience of his entourage, became even more cynical and exploitative. However, the public is unlikely to focus on this. Once again, in the next elections, the winner will be the one who more effectively presents themselves as the "lesser evil" or the "new evil."
2. "Veteran" Projects: An Attack of Clones
The war will inevitably leave a mark on Ukrainian politics. It is expected that a significant number of parties and initiatives will be built around "veteran" brands. Political forces will attempt to present veterans as symbols of hope and change, assuming that their experience and charisma will attract voters.
While there is immense respect for veterans and their invaluable contribution to victory, it must be acknowledged that public memory is short. History shows that after wars, societal interest in military figures in politics quickly fades. Ukraine is likely to follow this pattern, facing an oversaturation of similar veteran-based projects. This "attack of clones" will lead to vote fragmentation: dozens of parties with identical messages will struggle to compete with a non-militarized project that focuses on a peaceful agenda and social justice.
3. The Diaspora Voter: The Key to Victory
A new significant factor is the 7 million Ukrainians who have found themselves abroad due to the war. These individuals, initially ignored by the government, have now become the target of active political engagement. The creation of the Ministry of Unity and the shift in the government's rhetoric toward emigrants are attempts to win their support.
The diaspora electorate could play a decisive role, especially if it organizes itself to represent its interests. However, the key question remains: can the government convince these people to support it, considering three years of rhetoric filled with bitter reproaches and open insults?
4. The Opportunity for a New Project
The abundance of veteran-based and cloned political initiatives creates favorable conditions for the emergence of an alternative player. A non-militarized project focused on economic recovery, social justice, and transparent governance could become a true electoral sensation.
When 30+ similar projects divide 50-60% of the votes among themselves, a new force with 10-20% support could confidently win. The key is to offer not just an alternative but a convincing action plan focused on the future.
Conclusion
After the war, elections in Ukraine will not merely be a competition of personalities but a battle for a new model of governance. Victory will depend not on a leader's charisma but on their ability to capture the attention of key groups: protest voters, veterans, and the Ukrainian diaspora. The most likely winner will not be the perfect candidate but the one who can effectively leverage society's disillusionment and offer at least some hope for change.