28 June, 12:51
How a Strategic Defeat Became a Tool for Regime Survival
In 2021, Russia was at its geopolitical peak:
— Europe remained dependent on Russian gas,
— Over $300 billion in Russian reserves were parked in Western banks,
— NATO existed mostly on paper,
— European defense spending hovered at a post-Cold War low,
— Ukraine posed no military threat, and
— Finland and Sweden were committed to neutrality.
And yet, in this moment of apparent triumph, Vladimir Putin chose war.
To the Western observer, it seemed irrational. A self-inflicted catastrophe.
But what if it wasn’t a blunder — what if it was design?
💰 A Fortress for Frozen Assets
Russia’s post-Soviet oligarchy doesn’t function as a capitalist elite. It is a custodial caste, enriched not through innovation but through inheritance of state rents: pipeline monopolies, mining licenses, land, and cash-flow extraction from state-owned giants.
In 2021, this wealth was vulnerable:
To anti-corruption investigations,
To liberal market reforms,
To generational turnover and public demand for accountability.
Putin’s solution was radical: convert this fragile stability into permanent emergency. War, in this calculus, was not meant to be won.
It was meant to freeze the system — like cryogenic storage for stolen capital.
🧊 War as Regime Stabilizer
The war enabled several strategic shifts that benefitted Putin's power vertical:
Crushed the rising middle class — the only domestic group with political agency.
Erased the demand for economic improvement — war justifies poverty.
Obliterated electoral politics — opposition equals treason.
Redirected hatred outward — NATO, Ukraine, “the collective West.”
A poor, frightened population doesn’t demand reforms. It begs for protection.
In this framework, military failure becomes a feature, not a bug.
🕵🏻♂️ Controlled Collapse as Asset Strategy
While Western sanctions targeted Russian reserves and property, the war created a controlled environment for asset triage:
Liquidate domestic competitors,
Transfer wealth to "friendly" jurisdictions (Dubai, Türkiye, Armenia),
Rewrite ownership structures under wartime law.
Much like a mobster staging a robbery to collect insurance, Putin launched a geopolitical firestorm to pre-emptively bury evidence of internal rot.
📉 NATO, Ukraine, and the Myth of the Threat
Was NATO expansion a real threat? No. It was a narrative device.
A ghost invented to justify domestic crackdown, militarization, and wealth consolidation.
Putin’s real fear was not missiles in Kharkiv — it was:
TikTok in Dagestan,
Bitcoin in Irkutsk,
Navalny in Moscow.
📌 Conclusion: Losing Was the Plan
Putin didn't miscalculate. He recalculated the system.
In a perverse inversion of war logic, Russia’s defeat abroad ensured the regime’s victory at home.
And as absurd as it sounds, it worked — at least for now.
He didn’t save Russia.
He saved the vault.