Symptoms of Collapse: How the Moscow System Admits Its Own Failure

His recent post about the situation at the front is a medical chart of a dying system. Every phrase is a symptom. Every contradiction is a stage of decomposition. Let us dissect this text as a pathologist examines the cause of death.

Symptom #1: Logical Paralysis

Quote:

“Are we passing or not passing, it’s too early to give assessments. Results — at the end of combat operations […] So it’s too early. But conclusions must be made now, correcting shortcomings, mistakes.”

Diagnosis:

This is cognitive dissonance in its purest form. Kotenok says two mutually exclusive things in one paragraph:

• “Too early to give assessments” = postponing judgment until the end
• “Conclusions must be made now” = immediate judgment is necessary

This is not a rhetorical device. This is the panic of a man who sees failure but cannot name it. The system demands optimism from him, reality shows catastrophe. The result is logical paralysis, when the brain tries to hold both statements simultaneously.

What this means: When a propagandist cannot choose between “everything is fine” and “everything is terrible,” it means that reality has already defeated the narrative. Only time remains until public admission.

Symptom #2: Splitting the President’s Reality

Quote:

“Why, after the Chief of the General Staff’s reports, do people gossip that the President is being lied to, announcing successes where there is still work to be done? I admit there are those wishing to distort reality. The President of the Russian Federation receives 100% real information without embellishments.”

Diagnosis:

Kotenok creates a logically impossible construction:

1. People say the president is being lied to
2. There are those who want to distort reality
3. BUT the president receives 100% truth

This is mathematically impossible. If there are distortions (point 2), then either the president receives them (contradicting point 3), or people are mistaken (contradicting point 1).

What this means: Kotenok defends the regime’s sacred cow — the president’s infallibility — at any cost, even at the cost of logic. But the very necessity of this defense shows: everyone already understands that the president is being lied to. Otherwise, why refute it?

Symptom #3: Heroization of Catastrophe

Quote:

“They fight as they can, with all their strength, dying for Russia. Fighting without demobilization for the fourth year […] The wounded are put back in line, they are sometimes ‘screwed over’ with payments (there are plenty of facts). But our soldier, despite everything, crawls forward…”

Diagnosis:

Look at the structure of this paragraph:

• Fact: Fourth year without demobilization
• Fact: The wounded are returned to combat
• Fact: Payments aren’t being made
• Conclusion: “But the soldier crawls forward”

Kotenok acknowledges all the problems but reformats them into a heroic narrative. This is a classic psychological defense mechanism: when reality is unbearable, it gets renamed.

“Fighting without demobilization” = the system cannot rotate troops because there’s no one to replace them
 “Screwed over with payments” = the system doesn’t fulfill obligations to the wounded
 “Crawls forward” = advancement is measured in meters with thousands killed

What this means: When a propagandist is forced to turn systemic failures into proof of heroism, it means that there is no more positive news. Only ways remain to beautifully describe catastrophe.

Symptom #4: Admission Through Denial

Quote:

“In open sources, the enemy slanders that since December 2024 the number of volunteers in the RF Armed Forces has been falling. The enemy refers to interrogations of our prisoners and indicates that they ended up at the front 12 (!) days after signing the contract.”

Diagnosis:

Kotenok uses the word “slanders”, but then provides specific facts that confirm this “slander”:

• The number of volunteers is falling (fact confirmed by independent sources)
• Training of 12 days instead of a month (fact confirmed by interrogations)
• Age is increasing, physical condition is deteriorating

Then he writes:

“If such facts are confirmed, then this does not go into the piggy bank of our victory, but on the contrary.”

“If confirmed” — but he just confirmed them himself!

What this means: Kotenok cannot directly say “we are losing,” but cannot remain silent about the facts either. So he says: “the enemy slanders, BUT if it’s true, then we’re in trouble.” This is admission through formal denial — a classic symptom of system collapse.

Symptom #5: Demand for Justice as Evidence of Lawlessness

Quote:

“The commanding people making such decisions must be dealt with according to the law.”

Diagnosis:

This is the most destructive phrase in the text.

Question: If the president “100% knows the truth,” why is there a need to demand an investigation? Why doesn’t this happen automatically? Why is a war correspondent forced to publicly call for legality?

Answer: Because the system doesn’t work.

What this means: When a loyal propagandist is forced to demand compliance with the law, it means the law is not being observed. When he is forced to demand this publicly, it means that internal control mechanisms are completely broken.

This is not a call for reform. This is a cry for help from a sinking ship.

Symptom #6: Divine Providence Instead of Strategy

Quote:

“And I believe that Russia has a special path. As they say, God loves fools and drunks. Accordingly, the Lord is not without mercy.”

Diagnosis:

When a military analyst replaces strategic analysis with religious faith, this is the final stage of intellectual bankruptcy.

Look at the logic:

• There are problems → we admit
• There is incompetence → we admit
• Are there solutions? → no, we rely on God

“God loves fools” is a self-deprecating admission of incompetence, disguised as folk wisdom. Kotenok is essentially saying: “We act like fools, but maybe God will save us.”

What this means: When a system transitions from “we have a plan” to “God will help,” it means that there is no plan anymore. This is the capitulation of reason before reality.

Symptom #7: Impossibility of Reform

Quote:

“Everyone understands, rotation in leadership positions has long been overdue. But who to put in place of the SMO [Special Military Operation] leadership tomorrow? […] Fire all army generals and colonel generals? And replace them with whom? Who to stay with in wartime conditions?”

Diagnosis:

This is an admission of systemic irreplaceability. Kotenok describes a situation where:

• Everyone knows leadership is incompetent
• Everyone knows rotation is needed
• BUT there’s no one to replace them with

This is not a defense of generals. This is a statement of institutional collapse. The system has degraded so much that even admitting failure, it cannot correct it.

What this means: When a regime is forced to keep incompetent leadership at the helm because there are no alternatives, it means that the system has devoured itself. It has exterminated or expelled everyone who could have saved it.

Symptom #8: Closed Circle with No Exit

Quote:

“War reveals our pluses and minuses, as well as those of the opponent… If our pluses prevail, we will achieve victory.”

Diagnosis:

The text’s final phrase is a tautology disguised as analysis:
 “If we win, then we will win.”

After all the acknowledged problems, after all the demands for reforms, after all the contradictions — Kotenok returns to empty optimism without content.

What this means: When an analyst who has admitted all the problems concludes with an empty phrase “maybe we’ll get lucky,” it means that he sees no way out of the situation. This is not a plan — this is hope despite the facts.

Conclusion: Portrait of Destruction

Kotenok’s text is neither propaganda nor criticism. It is a clinical picture of systemic decomposition, recorded by someone inside the system.

Every sentence shows:

• Reality defeats illusion (he cannot help but acknowledge facts)
• Logic collapses (contradictions within one paragraph)
• Heroic narrative replaces strategy (when there’s nothing to be proud of, they take pride in suffering)
• Faith replaces planning (when there’s no plan, God remains)
• The system cannot reform itself (acknowledges problems but cannot solve them)

Kotenok is not an enemy of the regime. He is its servant. And that is precisely why his text is so destructive. When a loyal person cannot defend the system without admitting its failure, it means that failure has become obvious even from within.

The Moscow system will not collapse tomorrow. But it can no longer create the illusion of victory even for its own servants. And when a system loses the ability to convince its own propagandists — this is the beginning of the end.

Reality always wins. The only question is the price of this victory. And texts like this show: the price is already being paid. Every day. With thousands of lives.

Oleh Cheslavskyi — independent historian and analyst specializing in deconstructing imperial narratives.

Originally published at spilno.org